In a strategic move to stabilise global oil market prices, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have announced a halt to planned oil output increases during the first quarter of 2026, citing a seasonal slowdown in demand and market uncertainty.
According to a statement by the oil cartel, key OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — held a virtual meeting on Sunday where the decision was taken.
The group agreed to boost output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December — in line with the hikes planned for October and November — before suspending any further increases from January through March next year.
By pausing output hikes, OPEC+ aims to prevent oversupply and support global oil prices, if prices remain stable or rise, which is possible in the absence of oversupply in the market, Nigeria could benefit from higher earnings per barrel.
It would be recalled that Nigeria has struggled in recent years to meet its OPEC+ production quotas due to ageing infrastructure, theft, and underinvestment. A pause in output hikes may ease pressure on Nigeria to ramp up production, allowing it to focus on improving efficiency and security in the oil sector.
With oil prices potentially holding steady, Nigeria’s 2026 budget projections may be more predictable. This could help in managing inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and debt servicing.
The group said the decision reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown in oil demand, which normally weakens in the first quarter, noting that the pause also comes during a period of uncertainty for oil traders.
“The eight participating countries reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the statement reads.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023.”
The oil cartel has consistently increased production this year, basing its decision on “healthy market fundamentals” and low inventory levels.
On March 4, OPEC+ decided to proceed with a planned output increase in April — its first major decision since 2022 — amid renewed calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for OPEC and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices.
On October 5, the group agreed to implement another production hike of 137,000 bpd beginning in November 2025, a move it said was aimed at maintaining market stability amid steady global growth and low oil inventories.
OPEC+ had said the adjustment would be drawn from the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production.
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