The Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Tanimu Yakubu, has cautioned against what he described as the “arithmetic of illusion” dominating public discourse on Nigeria’s economy under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
In a strongly worded commentary titled: “Tinubunomics and the Arithmetic of Illusion” on Sunday, Yakubu criticized the widespread circulation of exaggerated financial figures, arguing that many viral claims conflate revenue, borrowing, and federation-wide collections in ways that misrepresent the country’s fiscal realities.
According to him, tax collections are often added to oil receipts, customs revenues, and so-called “subsidy savings,” while borrowing is treated as income. These distortions, he said, produce headline numbers of ₦150 trillion, ₦170 trillion, or ₦180 trillion, followed by sensational questions about “where the money went.”
“Much of it never existed in the form being implied,” Yakubu stated, stressing that borrowing is financing, not income, and that federation receipts are not equivalent to federal government spending power.
He explained that subsidy reforms do not generate instant cash but rather close fiscal leaks, with benefits appearing gradually through reduced deficit pressure and improved budgeting discipline. Similarly, he noted that recent increases in Nigeria’s debt stock are largely due to exchange-rate revaluation of existing external obligations, not fresh borrowing.
Yakubu further emphasized that revenues in a federal system are shared and statutorily allocated, meaning gross collections cannot be equated with federal budgetary resources. He described Tinubunomics as a “macro-fiscal reset” designed to restore price signals, strengthen revenue administration, rebuild credibility, and protect vulnerable citizens within the constraints of debt service, foreign exchange realities, and constitutional obligations.
Calling for more rigorous scrutiny, the Budget Office DG urged Nigerians to focus on federal retained revenue, separate it from financing, and track expenditure across debt service, personnel, capital projects, and transfers. He argued that accountability should be measured by tangible outputs such as roads, power, rail, schools, and clinics, rather than by viral arithmetic on social media.
“No amount of theatrical arithmetic can substitute for fiscal discipline,” Yakubu concluded.
