A looming threat to investors’ confidence has emerged as the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns about recent changes in the methodology used for calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
It would be recalled that Nigeria’s headline inflation has been moderating in recent months before surging to 15.15% in December 2025.
Prior to the moderation, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) transitioned to a new 2024 base year and updated the expenditure basket to better reflect current consumer patterns.
The new methodology uses a 12-month 2024 average as a reference to prevent “artificial spikes” in year-on-year figures.
Reacting, CPPE in a policy brief on Sunday, January 18, 2026, noted that while easing inflation is a welcome relief for consumers, the credibility of the inflation data has come into question, potentially undermining trust among investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers.
CPPE’s analysis highlights that, despite the healthy trend in disinflation over the past year, the modifications to CPI computation may weaken the foundation upon which economic stability rests.
“Inflation is moderating, but data credibility is weakening. The decline in inflation suggests that macroeconomic stabilization efforts are beginning to take effect. However, adjustments to Consumer Price Index CPI computation parameters have created credibility gaps, undermining the confidence of investors, analysts, businesses, and policy-makers” Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of CPPE noted in the brief.
Yusuf noted further that though food inflation dramatically fell to 10.84%, with food prices actually deflating month-on-month, granting much-needed respite to households struggling with rising costs. Yet, beneath this relief lies a serious concern for farmers whose returns are being eroded by lower prices and rising input costs. This growing discrepancy between consumer affordability and agricultural investment viability poses a critical dilemma for policymakers.
According to CPPE, structural barriers such as high energy costs, transportation expenses, and insecurity in agricultural production continue to drive inflationary pressures, casting doubt on the sustainability of economic recovery. As core inflation rose to 18.63% — higher than expected despite stable exchange rates — analysts fear a disconnect between statistical data and economic realities.
With inflation primarily fueled by costs tied to food, housing, utilities, transportation, and fuel, the need for rigorous policy responses is clear. Experts stress that the government must focus on reducing logistical costs and strengthening agricultural supply chains to persist in countering inflation while ensuring that farmers remain viable.
“The increasing call for improved methodological integrity in CPI calculations cannot be overstated. A lack of trust in statistical outcomes threatens to erode the hard-won gains in price stability and affordability”.
The think-tank urged the NBS to strengthen institutional capacity for data accuracy and quality assurance, improve technical and analytical rigour in CPI computation and rebuild public and investor confidence in statistical outcomes.
The CPPE urged both fiscal and monetary authorities to coordinate closely to stabilize prices without hampering production efforts.
“In conclusion, while the moderate inflation figures offer a glimmer of hope for economic stability, the urgent need for action to tackle structural issues, bolster agricultural support, and rebuild confidence in inflation data remains paramount.
“Without decisive measures, the positive trajectory may falter, leaving both consumers and investors in a precarious position”.
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