The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast early rainfall across several states of the federation, cautioning farmers against rushing into planting as the full onset of the rainy season has not yet commenced.
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja while unveiling NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP). He warned that despite sporadic early rains in some areas, extreme weather patterns are expected between March and May.
According to the minister, although places such as Lagos, Rivers and Bayelsa States have already experienced rainfall, these showers should not be mistaken for the beginning of the rainy season.
He said early rains had been recorded in parts of the country, but stressed that farmers should exercise caution, as the actual rainy season is still ahead.
Highlights of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction
The 2026 SCP projects significant rainfall across southern Nigeria, alongside variations in the onset and cessation of rains, as well as episodes of extreme weather conditions.
The report indicates an early onset of rainfall in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba States. In contrast, a late onset is expected in Borno State.
Rainfall cessation is projected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States, while a delayed end of the rainy season is anticipated in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.
NiMet further predicts a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States. Conversely, parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
On rainfall volume, the agency projects normal annual rainfall in most parts of the country compared to the long-term average. Above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States and the Federal Capital Territory, while below-normal rainfall is anticipated in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States.
NiMet also warned of dry spells. Between March and May, severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, while moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River and Delta States, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara States. During the June–July–August period, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days are predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara States.
The report further predicts that the Little Dry Season, also known as the “August Break,” will begin in late July and be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States, with between 28 and 40 days of little or no rainfall. A moderate August Break is expected in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.
Speaking at the event, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Yakubu Adam Farmata, described the SCP as a critical tool for national planning.
He said, “the SCP remains a flagship platform for strengthening the interface between climate science and national development planning.”
According to him, “the unveiling of the Seasonal Climate Prediction is not merely a scientific exercise but a strategic national engagement aimed at empowering decision-makers with credible, timely, and actionable climate information.”
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