The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has retained Nigeria’s crude oil production quota at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026.
This is despite ongoing operational and production challenges that have hampered the country’s ability to meet its quota.
Nigeria has failed to meet its OPEC quota for seven months in 2025, with the country recording 1.5mbpd or above in only January, June and July of 2025.
The decision to retain the quota at 1.5mbpd was announced following the conclusion of OPEC’s ministerial meeting, where member states reviewed global supply dynamics, price stability measures, and production targets for the coming year.
According to OPEC, Nigeria’s quota retention reflects expectations of improved production efficiency, increased investment in upstream assets, and ongoing efforts to curb crude theft and pipeline vandalism. The organisation noted that Nigeria remains a “strategic supplier” within the global oil market and is projected to contribute meaningfully to market balance in 2026.
Industry analysts say the decision comes as a relief to Nigeria, which has struggled for years to meet its allocated quotas due to infrastructure deficits, insecurity in the Niger Delta, and declining investment in the oil sector. While recent reforms and renewed government attention have boosted optimism, actualising the 1.5 million bpd target will require sustained output recovery and enhanced security of crude assets.
With global oil demand projected to rise moderately in 2026, Nigeria’s ability to optimise its output could significantly boost government revenue and strengthen the country’s foreign exchange earnings. The OPEC decision, observers say, sets the stage for Nigeria to reposition itself as a reliable and consistent crude supplier.
NNPC Limited, in its October 2025 financial statement, has expressed optimism that the country’s oil production capacity will return to normal by mid-December 2025.
NNPC Ltd noted that production levels continue to be temporarily moderate due to ongoing planned maintenance activities across key assets like (Usan and SEPNU; continued delays in the commencement of operations in WAEP (OML 71 & 72); and recent flooding that resulted in well shut-ins in OML 143.
The state oil firm, however, expressed optimism that full production recovery is planned for mid-December.
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